KARACHI:Imagine a vast tract of prime land, blessed with temperate climate and a sprawling coastline dotted with beaches, creeks hosting migratory birds from afar, rare green and olive ridley turtles in addition to an inland crocodile sanctuary, shrines and a thriving seaport; a cosmopolitan habitat, famous for its diversity, housing people of almost all faiths and beliefs. And you would have rightly imagined Karachi on the eve of Independence in 1947.

Now imagine a cluster of humanity, being fattened every single moment of each passing day for over seven decades with fellow citizens from the remotest corners of the national boundaries, legal or illegal immigrants and refugees from neighbouring troubled lands and beyond; all pouring in by road, rail, air transport almost unchecked (rather facilitated in their journey by corruption at all levels); and, in the process making this land literally a ‘hot’ property for greedy land grabbers: Welcome to Karachi 2021.

From day one of the new country, massive demand for housing accommodation, government and private offices, industrial buildings and commercial structures for its first federal capital. Planning was beaten hands down. A loot sale ensued.

The accompanying cropping up of a complex network of roads, highways, flyovers and underpasses replacing the natural plantation further turned the city into a concrete jungle. Experts blame this race for ‘concretization’ of the landscape, the preference for a grey environment in total disregard for the green and healthy atmosphere for what eventually emerged as a city growing hotter by adding 3°C to its summer temperature in the last 60 years.

The other contributing factors to the plight of the megalopolis have been the manifold increase in the number of vehicles, proliferation of industrial units and commercial enterprises; unchecked burning of garbage all over the city, skyrocketing usage of electrical and gas appliances; coastal erosion, rising sea levels, and pollution.

The investigative data for over six decades reveals that from April 1961 to June 2021, Karachi’s mean temperature of January rose by 1°C, February by 5.9 °C, March by 2.1 °C, April by 4.4 °C, May 3.6 °C, June by 1.2 °C.

Dr Syed Raza Ali Gardezi, an environment expert and general secretary at Citizens for Environment, stresses that the construction frenzy in the name of development – coupled with arbitrary tree hacking and no plantation – gave rise to the Urban Heat Island effect, which comes into play when cemented buildings absorb warmth of the sunlight during the day and emit it in the evening and night, causing high night temperatures.

Mentioning the Greenhouse effect, he said that under this effect, sunlight strikes the earth and a major part of it goes back to the upper atmosphere while some of it is trapped in the polluted atmosphere above the earth, contributing to the warming on the land below.

“Trees provide life-giving oxygen. When we hack them down, the temperature automatically goes up,” said Gardezi, adding that “the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Red Line Project had also caused tree cutting, while trees along Kashmir Road, Tariq Road, and various other roads had been uprooted ruthlessly”.

He pointed out that the establishment of high-rise buildings in PECHS and other areas had caused the demolition of houses that once had lush green trees. Similarly, high-rise buildings in Gulistan-e-Jauhar and other parts of the city had also caused tree cutting, causing rise in the city temperature.

He said that no city planning existed in Karachi as garbage is thrown at many places in the city, particularly in Malir Nadi, Layar Nadi and Expressway side along Manghopir while gurgling gutters can also be seen in all areas. There are only two operative garbage landfill sites – at Jam Chakro and Deh Gondal Pass – highly inadequate for this megacity.

To tackle the warming issue, Gardezi emphasized the urgency for proper city planning. “A new law should be enacted to force a person to plant 10 trees if he cuts one; garbage should be promptly lifted and dumped at designated landfill sites; more landfill sites should be established; while tree plantation should be undertaken along roads, in parks and other places.”

He suggested vertical gardens in all the new and old buildings besides establishment of rooftop gardens. “Solar panels should be used in place of generators, while wind turbines should be installed in coastal and other open areas.” The federal government has formulated an electric vehicles policy that should be implemented, while electrically powered BRT buses should be introduced in the city, Gardezi concluded.

Ahmed Shabbar, an environmentalist running the Garbage Can initiative, observed that Karachi generates 6.2 million tonnes of garbage on an annual basis. “Out of this, 60 percent is disposed of at garbage dumping sites, while 40 percent is abandoned and burnt at various places in the city. The practice is not only illegal but is a contributor to the rise in the city temperature in a big way. The garbage is also abandoned in major drains, Lyari Nadi and Malir-Korangi Nadi, and goes directly into the Arabian Sea untreated.”

Referring to a report, he said that annually, 200 tons of plastic is abandoned in Korangi Nadi and 2,000 tonnes in Lyari Nadi, which also flows into the sea, contributing to the sea level rise along Karachi coast.

Referring to another report, he said that 465-472 million gallons per day (MGD) sewerage is generated in the city while optimum design capacity of existing sewerage treatment plants is 150 MGD. “Thus the shortfall in sewage treatment capacity is 322 MGD, while the quantity of sewage treated is 50 MGD and untreated sewage is 417-425 MGD.”

He said that there are four garbage dumping sites in the city at Jam Chakro, Gondal Pass, Ibrahim Hyderi and Iqra University vicinity.

To a question that a Senate committee has reported that Karachi would sink by 2060 due to sea level rise caused by galloping global temperatures, Shabbar replied with an emphatic: “There is no doubt it.”

“Karachi could drown in future as sea level is rising due to melting of glaciers,” said Shuhab Usto, a civil rights lawyer and environment activist.

He said that 50% of total garbage produced in Karachi is burnt at various places on a daily basis, causing rise in the city temperature as well as atmospheric pollution. He said that Sind Environment Protection Agency had badly failed to control environment degradation in the metropolis.

According to a Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research report, Karachi’s rapid urbanization and global warming have inflicted the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect on the city. Moreover, the weather conditions due to which such extreme calamities take place are caused by persistent air depression upon the Arabian Sea.

In addition to the causes, in Karachi specifically, the UHI effect is rising due to the slowed process of evapotranspiration. Moreover, in the past years, the increase in the number of buildings has resulted in the ‘urban canyon effect’, the provision of multiple surfaces for the reflection and absorption of sunlight, ultimately increasing the city’s temperatures. The increased number of skyscrapers leads to blockage of wind, which also inhibits cooling by convection and airborne contaminants from dissipating.

According to a Conservative Energy Future report, “heat island” describes built up areas that are hotter than nearby rural areas. The annual mean air temperature of a city with 1 million people or more can be 1.8-5.4°F (1-3°C) warmer than its surroundings. In the evening, the difference can be as high as 22°F (12°C).

Heat islands can affect communities by increasing summertime peak energy demand, air conditioning costs, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, heat-related illness and mortality, and water quality.

Sarfaraz Ahmed, Director at PMD Karachi, recalled that 17-24 June 2015 temperature rise in Karachi took more than 1,200 human lives. “On the heat index scale in Karachi, during this event, the maximum temperature recorded was 44.8°C but the heat index was around 66°C on the peak heatwave day of 20th June 2015 because of low air pressure and wind speed and very high humidity. The main causes of deaths identified were heatstroke and dehydration.”

He said that warming is not only affecting health but also economy. “A one percent rise in average temperature could reduce wheat production by 7 per cent while rice production could decrease by 10 percent if night temperatures rise with the same proportion,” Sarfaraz added.

UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says Karachi could experience conditions equivalent to the deadly 2015 heatwaves on an annual basis under 2°C of warming. Increasing temperatures will decrease the thermal efficiency of fossil, nuclear, biomass and solar power generation technologies, as well as buildings and other infrastructure. The global surface temperature has increased by about 1.0 °C and is estimated to rise further over the 21st century by 1.10 °C, according to the report.

Dr Qutubuddin, a senior doctor at Dow University Hospital Karachi, said that temperature in Karachi has risen significantly, adding high temperatures cause heat strokes, dehydration, exhaustion, muscle cramps, heat swelling, fainting and other diseases.

Another health expert, Dr Qaisar Sajjad, General Secretary of Pakistan Medical Association (PMA), pointed out that heatstroke occurs when brain fails to bear high temperature, while dehydration happens when water in the body decreases to very low levels.

“The people should adopt preventive measures like staying under shed of trees, buildings and houses instead of sunshine during the heatwaves. They should also drink much water, preferably by adding salt in it. Those who have blood pressure should not add salt to the water,” the PMA leader added.

According to the US Environment Protection Agency, many communities are taking action to reduce UHI using five main strategies: increasing tree and vegetative cover; installing green roofs, installing cool – mainly reflective – roofs, using cool pavements (either reflective or permeable), and utilizing smart growth practices.

According to the Journal of Climate Change and Health’s report 2021, the United Nations has predicted that Karachi’s population will rise to 23 million by 2030. This raises health, environmental, and economic concerns. Climate change, particularly alterations in annual weather events like monsoons, can increase the prevalence of severe infectious diseases.

Currently, with the rise in Earth’s surface temperature driving climate change, future perturbations in local weather events in Karachi are predicted. In August 2020, the city received more than 8 inches over 20 cm of monsoon rainfall. Under normal circumstances, this is the estimated amount of rainfall in Karachi in one year.

Flooding is particularly perilous for vulnerable infrastructure, especially financially unstable citizens who reside in impoverished neighborhoods with poorly constructed homes. An important contributor to Karachi’s calamitous floods is the hastening of evaporation of water from the oceans due to climate change heating, which eventually falls as rain.

According to a UN standard, a country should have at least 25 per cent of its total land under forest cover to reduce rising temperatures. The new annual economic survey of Pakistan released in June 2021 says Pakistan is a forest deficient country as it has 5.01 percent area under its forest cover. “In order to mitigate the negative impacts of automobile sector on environment and giving a boost to the economy, Government has approved its National Electric Vehicle Policy targeting a 30 percent shift to electric vehicles by 2030, the survey adds.

The Sindh government claims it has eight per cent forest cover, a claim that is denied by independent experts who mention Sindh’s forest cover less than two percent. According to Sindh Forest Department data, mangrove forests of Indus Delta along its coastal belt from Karachi to Thatta cover an area of about 600,000 hectares out of which Sindh forest department controls 280,470 hectares, Port Qasim Authority 54,400 hectares and Sindh Board of Revenue 255,130 hectares.

An IUCN report titled Pakistan’s Coastal and Marine Resources says the mangrove ecosystem has been under severe stress resulting from human-induced and natural pressures such as, reduction in inflow of freshwater from Indus due to construction of barrages and reservoirs, pollution, cutting for fuel wood collection and livestock grazing, especially camels.

Muhammad Naeem Qureshi, President of National Forum for Environment and Health told this scribe: “To reduce warming in Karachi, we need to plant trees as much as we could. Moreover, there should be effective check to reduce harmful greenhouse emissions both from the industries and vehicles. Mass transit should be launched in Karachi as early as possible besides launching electrical vehicles. The building code should be revised to make environment friendly while it should also be effectively implemented.”

He said that it was a fact that widespread cutting of mangroves had taken place in the last few decades due to various reasons, especially urbanization, commercialization of land, and unchecked development along the coastal belt.

Qureshi said: “Widespread tree hacking has taken place in all districts and in all localities of Karachi in the name of development and urbanization. During the last 10 years, 17,000 trees have been hacked between New Sabzi Mandi to Cattle Market along Super Highway, 7,500 hacked along both sides of the University Road, and over 15,000 hacked in different areas of Karachi in the name of development.”

The Government of Sindh and all the civic agencies and district administrations of Karachi, including Sindh Building Control Authority and Karachi Commissioner’s Office, are fully responsible for the tree cutting,” Qureshi noted.

Qureshi says: “Due to global warming, Karachi is already facing acute water crisis, which will further deepen in the recent future if result-oriented steps are not taken. He said that the people of Clifton and Defence areas are spending Rs70 billion annually on useable and drinking water at houses, offices and other places, which is very high.”

Qureshi said that out of city’s total daily garbage, including hospital waste, half of it is dumped at garbage dumping sites, while remaining is torched, discharged in storm-water drains and abandoned at various places across the city. “The burning of the garbage across the city is also adding to the temperature rise. A new modern waste management system should be established in the city to dispose of garbage at dumping sites.”

A report titled Climate Change Profile of Pakistan says sea level along the Karachi coast has risen approximately 10 centimeters in the last century. It observed that this figure was 1.1 millimeters per year in the past century. A further 60-centimeter rise is expected by the end of the 21st century and will most likely affect the low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and the Indus River delta.

By the end of this century, the annual mean temperature in Pakistan is expected to rise by 3°C to 5°C, while higher global emissions may yield a rise of 4°C to 6°C.

According to an IPCC report of August 2021, in the coming decades, some aspects of increasing climate change may be amplified for cities, including heat, flooding from heavy precipitation events and sea level rise in coastal cities (like Karachi).

An iconic crusader for city planning, Director of Orangi Pilot Project Parween Rahman, had consistently waged a relentless struggle to achieve an ideal green environment instead of a grey future for the city. She said the city wants mega-management, not mega-projects. She was rewarded for her pursuit with bullets on March 13, 2013. Seven-and-a-half years later, many more megaprojects dot the city skyline.

Perween Rahman had also tried to warn us: “You can block the waterways, but you cannot stop water” In 2020, with submersion of posh New Nazimabad, Defence Housing Authority, Clifton and other city localities in massive flooding her prophecy came true. The environmentalists are worried. But are the government and the city authorities? Seems not!